Jaya Tiasa to gain from increasing FFB volume  and higher log prices
 Borneo Post December 14, 2011, Wednesday

ROBUST  GROWTH: Photo shows logging activities being undertaken in Sarawak. 
KUCHING:According to RHB  Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHB Research), Jaya Tiasa recorded an  average selling price (ASP) for its logs of RM741 per cubic metre (m3)  in the first quarter of FY12 (1QFY04/12), an increase of 3.3 per cent  quarter-on-quarter.
Jaya Tiasa is just one of many big companies owned by Sir Tiong Hiew King family made nearly RM 200 million profit from Sarawak for the year ending July 2011.  Sir Tiong Hiew King family related-owned  companies have been given over a million acres in Sarawak by Chief Minister Abdul Taib.
The high log prices were mainly due to acute  shortage in log supply during the early part of 2011, as production was  hampered by extremely wet weather condition in Sarawak. Log prices had  since eased as log production volume normalised over the past few  months.
“Due to lower log prices (we estimate its log prices to  average about US$220/m3), we therefore expect Jaya Tiasa to report lower  earnings from its log division in its upcoming 2QFY04/12 quarterly  results,” RHB Research stated in its research report yesterday.
Jaya  Tiasa’s strategy was to maximise its log exports quota first (50 per  cent currently) before using its own harvested logs for downstream  plywood manufacturing, as margins for logs were higher now compared with  plywood. Hence, this was why the capacity utilisation rate of its  plywood division remained low at only between 50 per cent and 60 per  cent.
“The company typically produces lower-grade general plywood,  but there had been a shift to produce more higher-grade plywood  recently to take advantage of the higher demand from Japan after the  March earthquake disaster. This is evidenced by the sharp 31 per cent  increase in Jaya Tiasa’s plywood ASP to RM2,074/m3 in 1QFY04/12,” it  stated.
With that, Jaya Tiasa was likely to continue to produce  more higher-grade plywood in the near term, as current prices for  general plywood had been rather weak due to the oversupply issue, while  prices for higher-grade plywood had been holding up quite well.
The  group also pointed out that its fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production  volme was set to grow significantly by 30 per cent to 45 per cent per  annum over the next few years as more oil palm trees come into maturity.  Hence, this would drive Jaya Tiasa’s earnings growth going forward,  despite the relatively flat CPO price assumptions of RM3,100 per metric  tonne (MT) in 2012 and RM2,900/MT in 2013.
“Given the new FFB  production targets by management, we therefore revise upwards our  FY04/12-14 FFB production forecasts between two and four per cent. Our  FFB production forecasts are usually higher than management’s targets,  as Jaya Tiasa has always been conservative in guiding its FFB production  target,” said the research firm.
As at July 31, 2011, Jaya Tiasa  had about 15.5 million treasury shares, or about 5.5 per cent of its  share base. It had been reluctant to sell its treasury shares to the  market, as management deemed the share price was too low and did not  truly reflect the earnings growth potential of the company.
RHB  Research further pointed out that Jaya Tiasa’s management seemed to have  warmed up to the idea of selling its treasury shares, although it  stressed that it would only do it at the right time and at the right  price. Jaya Tiasa hinted that it might sell the treasury shares in the  future in order to raise funds for potential landbank acquisitions to  reduce its gearing.
“Overall, we believe a sale of the treasury  shares to the market will be beneficial for Jaya Tiasa as this will help  to improve the trading liquidity of its shares,” said the research  firm.
Going forward, RHB Research continued to favour Jaya Tiasa  as there would be a significant boost to its earnings from plantation  due to increasing FFB production volume and favourable CPO prices. This  could provide ‘earnings comfort’ to investors and also help to cushion  the more volatile earnings from timber.
Based on target price  earnings ratio of eight times CY12 earnings for the timber division and  12 times CY12 earnings for the plantation division, RHB Research pegged  its target price to RM7.28 per share, from RM6.71 per share previously,  at a 10 per cent discount to sum-of-part-based fair value.